CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Does Trade Exposure Explain Antiglobalization Votes?


Antoine Bouët
Anthony Edo
Charlotte Emlinger

 Highlights :
  • We investigate the local effects of trade exposure and immigration on voting behavior in France from 1988 to 2022.
  • We use the content of each candidate’s manifesto to construct an anti-globalization voting index for each French presidential election.
  • We show that increasing local exposure to import competition and immigration increases anti-globalization votes, while increasing export exposure reduces them.
  • While exposure to imports of final goods increases anti-globalization voting, exposure to imports of intermediate goods reduces it.

 Abstract :
We investigate the local effects of trade exposure and immigration on voting behavior in France from 1988 to 2022. We use the content of each candidate's manifesto to construct an anti-globalization voting index for each French presidential election. This index shows a significant increase in the anti-globalization positions of candidates, and a growing anti-globalization vote beyond the far right. We show that increasing local exposure to import competition and immigration increases anti-globalization votes, while increasing export exposure reduces them. We also find that imports have different effects depending on the products imported. While exposure to imports of final goods increases anti-globalization voting, exposure to imports of intermediate goods reduces it.


 Keywords : Voting | Trade | Immigration | Political Economy

 JEL : D72, F6
CEPII Working Paper
N°2024-12, October 2024

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