Transatlantic Tariff Negotiation: "Positive versus Negative" List Strategy for the European Union
How can Europe identify the threat of trade retaliation that allows it to establish the strongest negotiating position in dealing with the United States in merchandise trade alone?
By Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Houssein Guimbard, Pauline Wibaux, Yu Zheng
Post
The European Union’s (EU) trade dependence on the United States can be summarized with two lists of goods: one “negative,” the other “positive.” The first covers goods for which the EU is dependent on imports: increasing tariffs on the 412 products on this list—with supply structures showing vulnerabilities—would threaten the resilience of European value chains.
The second list includes 1,064 products for which the EU accounts for at least 20% of US exports. Estimates using CEPII’s analytical tools show that to inflict market losses on the US equivalent to those suffered by European exporters due to a 10-point increase in US tariffs, the EU would need to match it with a 40-point tariff on American products in this “positive” list. Such a move could trigger a costly spiral of trade conflict for both parties.
To find out more, read Quelle stratégie pour l’Union européenne face au protectionnisme américain ?
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The second list includes 1,064 products for which the EU accounts for at least 20% of US exports. Estimates using CEPII’s analytical tools show that to inflict market losses on the US equivalent to those suffered by European exporters due to a 10-point increase in US tariffs, the EU would need to match it with a 40-point tariff on American products in this “positive” list. Such a move could trigger a costly spiral of trade conflict for both parties.
To find out more, read Quelle stratégie pour l’Union européenne face au protectionnisme américain ?
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