Antoine Bouët, Anthony Edo & Charlotte Emlinger , 2024.
"Does Trade Exposure Explain Antiglobalization Votes?,"
CEPII Working Paper 2024- 12 , October 2024 , CEPII.

We investigate the local effects of trade exposure and immigration on voting behavior in France from 1988 to 2022. We use the content of each candidate's manifesto to construct an anti-globalization voting index for each French presidential election. This index shows a significant increase in the anti-globalization positions of candidates, and a growing anti-globalization vote beyond the far right. We show that increasing local exposure to import competition and immigration increases anti-globalization votes, while increasing export exposure reduces them. We also find that imports have different effects depending on the products imported. While exposure to imports of final goods increases anti-globalization voting, exposure to imports of intermediate goods reduces it.

Voting ; Trade ; Immigration ; Political Economy